These tensions, which had somewhat receded during the war’s first year, are now reemerging, with senior officials feeling free once again to revive old feuds — and even escalate them. At the center of this new political infighting is an unprecedented clash between the government and Israel’s security apparatus.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar
(Photo: Yair Sagi, ABIR SULTAN/AFP)
The Middle East is watching with interest — and astonishment. “The Arab world is riveted by what’s happening now in Israel, especially as we’re seeing precedents not even reached during the internal crisis before October 7,” said Wadie Awawdeh, a columnist for the widely read Qatari-owned newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi.
“Everyone understands that this isn’t about the war or the hostages but about Israel’s identity — and that the outcome of this crisis will have dramatic consequences not only for the Palestinians but for the region as a whole.”
On the eve of October 7, members of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” believed the internal fractures in Israel — described as the “curse of the eighth decade” — presented a historic opportunity to realize their vision of Israel’s annihilation.
“This crisis runs deep and reflects the unraveling of the glue that holds Israel together. It’ll lead to a more severe low point than the Yom Kippur War,” former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar declared in April 2023, in a meeting documented in a file later seized by the IDF during the war.
A year and a half later, Israel’s enemies continue to find satisfaction in its domestic upheaval. In the past, such discord may have encouraged offensive moves. But today, Hezbollah and Hamas have lost much of their power, while Iran — wary of U.S. President Donald Trump’s return and weakened by the erosion of its strategic arms, especially with the Bashar Assad regime’s collapse in Syria — can neither assist nor lead any new campaign.
Instead, some in the region are clinging to the hope that Israel will collapse from within. Still, there’s concern that before such a collapse, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may escalate the current wars — or even spark new ones.
The spotlight is currently on the unprecedented clash between the government and Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency. At the center are Netanyahu’s decision to fire agency head Ronen Bar and the dispute over official affidavits, along with a string of other incidents: the Eli Sharvit saga, leaks from the agency, a recording of the head of the Shin Bet's Jewish Division and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s boycott of Bar.
Together, these episodes have begun to unravel the near-mythic image of “Israel’s mukhabarat (Arabic for intelligence)” — a body traditionally perceived as enjoying full confidence from the leadership and carefully shielded from public view.
“In the Arab world, the clash between Netanyahu and Bar is seen as an unprecedented willingness to slaughter sacred cows in public,” Awawdeh explained. “They believe the conflict reflects a fundamental schism within Israel that could lead to a deep rupture.”
In a recent column, he added: “This internal division was illustrated in a cartoon published two weeks ago in Yedioth Ahronoth, showing Netanyahu declaring, ‘We’re one step away from toppling the Shin Bet,’ as if it were Hamas.”
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Dr. Mohanad Mustafa, a scholar of Israeli society, offered a similar view: “The decision to fire Bar reflects an effort to upend the traditional balance of power in Israel and replace it with a new political culture based on personal loyalty. Many inside Israel — like Nahum Barnea — warn this could lead to civil war.
“Israel’s strength has always rested on its ability to resolve internal conflicts through consensus. If that principle collapses and the 300,000-person base on which the country depends is defeated, disintegration is a real possibility.”
The protests for the release of hostages are also drawing intense regional attention, particularly from Palestinians, for whom the issue has immediate implications. “Even Israelis now admit the war in Gaza lacks a compass and the reservists’ protest letters reflect that perfectly,” said Palestinian commentator Muhannad Ayyash.
“None of the war’s objectives have been met; its sole purpose is to serve Netanyahu’s political aims. He insists on cultivating a sense of existential threat to perpetuate the fighting.”
Khaldoun Barghouti, a Palestinian expert on Israeli affairs, added: “The protest by air force crews is especially troubling for Israel because the reserve corps plays a crucial role in the air force’s operations. Without it, strategic planning — including that against Iran — falls apart.”
Still, not everyone is convinced Israel is on the brink. “We Arabs tend to exaggerate, mixing dreams and analysis,” said Dr. Sufian Abu Zaida, a leading Arab expert on Israel and a senior figure in the Fatah faction loyal to Mohammed Dahlan.
“Despite the serious crisis and the real fear of internal collapse, Israel’s government still faces a functioning judicial check. The prime minister is under indictment and must appear in court. And institutions remain relatively stable.”
Former MK Jamal Zahalka, who led the Balad party, agreed: “Yes, the protest is growing but Netanyahu’s coalition and his political base remain solid. The only forces that could shake him are external — like consequences from the Gaza war or a shift in U.S. or Arab policy toward Israel.”
The Arab cartoon world, always rich in symbolism, vividly captures how Israel’s crisis is perceived. In one cartoon, Ronen Bar is depicted as a puppet cutting the strings held by Netanyahu, who stands in shock.
In another, Netanyahu struggles in vain to contain steam bursting from a kettle labeled “the Israeli street.” In several Palestinian media cartoons, a giant Netanyahu ignores a crowd of miniature protesters demanding the hostages’ release, as he blindly pushes forward with the war.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar
(Photo: Yair Sagi, DEBBIE HILL/REUTERS)
One issue receiving less regional coverage is the erosion of Israel’s democratic norms and separation of powers. That may be because the region is largely ruled by authoritarian regimes, making democratic critiques sound hollow. The complexities of legal and political checks are also hard to convey to audiences unfamiliar with democratic systems.
In the Ronen Bar affair, for example, Arab media have focused on the rift between Bar and Netanyahu and Shin Bet’s internal investigation into October 7, which included criticism of lawmakers — but barely touched the detail that Bar was allegedly ordered to surveil political rivals, a commonplace occurrence in many regimes across the region.
After Israel celebrated its 77th Independence Day, it’s projecting a two-sided deterrence. On one hand, most actors in the region don’t want to confront Israel, let alone launch another October 7-style attack, despite the continued blows they’re absorbing.
On the other, Israel’s chronic internal instability and growing sense of strategic aimlessness are deterring outsiders from relying on it or strengthening ties. The country’s rapid return to the very ailments that plagued it before the massacre suggests no lessons were learned — and raises the specter of even greater disasters to come.
Palestinian journalist Muhammad Halasa asked back in early 2023: “Is the Altalena about to return to Tel Aviv’s shores?” A pointed reminder that the region is watching Israel closely — always searching for signs of weakness, which, sadly, are only becoming more numerous.
Dr. Michael Milshtein is head of the Forum for Palestinian Studies at the Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University.